TVIX update

The TVIX chart is very clear right now: sit and watch until it gives us another setup.  The small rally on Friday is up against resistance from two sources, the nearly horizontal line starting mid January and the down sloping line from the early February peak.  That seems like a lot to overcome without the benefit of a 3rd wave which I just don't see right now.  Still, that could easily be an inverse owl forming right there.  If so, a pullback to $6.35 could be followed by a rapid, 3rd wave breakout above both of these resistance lines.

Each time I sidestep a downdraft on this thing using waves and triggers it simply gets cheaper to buy such that the next big breakout of it is going to be a serious percentage move.  That is why I am being so patient with it.  There is certainly a great depression in market fear right now.  There is a feeling that the economy is getting better, jobs reports are solidifying, etc.  But wasn't that the purpose of all the stimulus??  And if things are getting better, I guess we should be removing the stimulus, right?  What will the markets do when the federal reserve no longer has their backs?  And if the fed pulls out soon, will it have the political capital to step back in when higher stock prices mainly benefit wealthy people?  Remember, there is a growing awareness about "wealth inequality" right now and it has nothing to do with fairness.  It has to do with the fear that the con men will screw the patsies so badly that it will result in broad civil unrest or worse.

There are incredible risks baked into this crap pie of a stock market yet few seem worried.  Everyone is all in on max margin.  Good luck with that.

Yes, the fear will come.  It always does.  It seems so far away until suddenly its in your face.  It will revert to the mean and then it will overshoot by exactly as much as the federal reserve stopped it from going down before.   The fear is just a coiled spring and when it uncoils next time it will feel like economic Blitzkrieg.  Nothing has been fixed.  All the problems have just been papered over and made worse.  Do you see all the politicians who are deciding to spend more time with their families instead of seeking re-election?  Do you see all the bankers offing themselves (some of which I believe had help...)?  I smell rats leaving a burning ship.

If you are going long these markets, watch out for Walk Away in May.