This is my bearish model on M+M - important indicator included.

You can make all the models you want but, like lightening, markets have a lot of leeway in how they play out.  You can say what they typically do and suggest this or that but there is always the element of controlled chaos.  The best thing you can do is make several models and assign probabilities and triggers to them.  The main benefits of doing this are that you are not surprised if the "unthinkable" happens and you are actively looking for signs that it will.

Before I go on, I have to say that the silver bulls are still very loud right now.  Many still call for immediate  hyperinflation even in the face of metals prices that are not in any kind of obvious uptrend.  Metals, especially silver, will be among the first to react to strong expectations of hyperinflation.  I don't see it yet.

Eventually the silver bulls will be right - very right.  I count myself among that crowd: long term silver and gold bulls. Trade the paper metals and miners according to the waves but buy the physical metal as lifetime savings that can never go bankrupt or be used for bail ins or be taxed away with the stroke of a desperate bureaucrat's pen.  I don't care what the day to day price of it is.  Even though I modeled the peaks of gold and silver to be peaks, I didn't run out and sell all my physical holdings because you never know at what point the collapse can happen and when it does you will not be able to buy any metals at all and your paper holdings will go worthless.
 
But I also know that we have a massive deflationary crash to work through.  Prechter is not wrong in direction.  He has math, history and logic on his side.  The only variation will be the exact timing and the degree which nobody can really know.  Everyone is building up for it.  Government is arming all of its agencies as if they were SWAT.  They hope to retain control of the scam after it collapses through the use of force.  Hollywood is fanning the flames as well.  Look at movies like Hunger Games, TV shows like Revolution, and songs like Adele's Skyfall (James Bond theme).  Did you ever read the lyrics to it?

This is the end,
Hold your breath and count to ten,
Feel the earth move and then,
Hear my heart burst again,

For this is the end,
I've drowned and dreamt this moment,
So overdue I owe them,
Swept away I'm stolen,

[Chorus]

Let the skyfall
When it crumbles
We will stand tall
Face it all together

Remember, in the movie, Skyfall was the name of Bond's family estate where grew up in.  But in the song it is used in the context of a collapse (the sky is falling so "let the sky fall").  There is also reference to drowning and dreaming which is a common nightmare (the end of the American dream?).  It obviously was in synch with the mood of the people since it grossed over a billion dollars worldwide, only the 14th film to do so ever.

But I digress.  All I'm really saying here is that metals and miners can still get sucked down in dollar terms (even though they will likely retain their buying power as other things fall in price like real estate).

And now to the charts.  I've been following the possibility for some time that the current wave is an ending diagonal but what if it turns out to be a horizontal triangle instead?  That would make it a 4th wave, 4th of C, not 5th of C.  The result could be as one of the two outcomes modeled below.

I must say, the count of that 3rd wave down (blue 3) does fit very well.  But this model gives us an important trigger to look for: how the 4th wave plays out.  In the chart below you can see that we are just a short move from kissing that support line.  While it may sound strange to say, it would be more bullish in the medium term to break down through it right now than to bounce off of it because if it bounces here then we have to expect that this was only the 4th wave and that after an a-b-c back up into red "e" (which can have a wide range but is more likely $21.50 than $25.50), another wave down will take us to lower lows.  If this plays out, that 5th wave should be about the size of the first wave which is where I got the lengths for it from in the models above.

From a trading perspective, a bounce here at exactly the indicated location would be a Godsend because it gives us a new reference frame to work from not unlike the key frame of an animation or of a compressed movie.  With compressed movies, only the scene deltas are stored.  These deltas are relative to a key frame.  As the further you get from a key frame, the more artifacts will be in the image. So the key frames occur in the video stream at regular locations in order to refresh the reference point.  The same is true in charting.

If we get that reference point then we can be highly confident that we will see a 5-3-5 (a-b-c) move upwards that will likely break out of the triangle just to show that the 4th wave is complete.  Once it reverses and breaks back into triangle, that is a strong sell trigger.  It would not surprise me to see 5 small waves up to kiss the top line from below, and then 3 smaller waves back down and then a break out on the C wave which then ultimately fails and forms a lower low than blue 3 above.