Saturday, April 5, 2014

One more metals bottoming watch data point: GDXJ

GDXJ is basically the leveraged form of GDX which is the gold miners ETF.  The J stands for Junior which means more volatile.  What's interesting about this chart is that it appear to be trying to masquerade as a mid channel ending diagonal.  If the chart is not observed carefully, it would imply that there is still another big wave that is needed in order to create the C wave to the bottom of the channel.

But a closer inspection of the wave count suggests that that over sized ending diagonal (which just had a throw over on the 5th wave does not form the B wave of a larger A-B-C formation but that it is rather the 4th of C.  Triangles are the penultimate waves but the difference in outcomes between the two scenarios will be large.  It's the difference between bottoming in the $34-$36 range and bottoming in the $22-$24 range.

The key thing here is to count the waves down carefully.  If you see 5 smallish waves down per below then buy when the 5th wave bottoms and set your stops right below your buy point.  you do NOT want to take a trip to the bottom of this channel if that is where the shares must go in order to find a bottom.  But I do not think the markets will let them go that far, it would represent too much of an opportunity and too many people are waiting on metals and miners to bottom so they can momo back into them.

Buy low, sell high and all that rot.  How do you think Wall St. extracts hundreds of billions in profits from the economy for doing no productive work?  They just keep these shares moving up and down and they buy low and sell high.  I bet you that the whole concept of Wall St. as we know it today collapses within my lifetime.  I bet people just stop gambling and start real savings instead.  The boomers will get screwed and the younger members of the herd will learn a lifelong lesson about storing their long term wealth in paper assets.


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