My model says recent AAPL earnings won't matter to the stock price

AAPL just reported earnings that beat expectations.  As a result, Forbes is wondering if it "got its mojo back".   Admittedly, $10.1 billion in net profit is nothing to sneeze at for a quarter's worth of work.  So why, pray tell, did they announce a massive share buy back and a 7 for 1 split?  Real investors, the institutional guys, they know that these moves are how the CEOs attempt to distract from underlying and hidden bad news.  GOOG recently played the same game.  Share buybacks are what CEOs do in order to spend the company's cash on themselves (they are massive shareholders) when they really don't know what to do next.  Buybacks are what you do when you do not have the insight and vision to invest capital.  Also, stock splits are intended to draw in the rabble, those with just a few thousand dollars to "invest" (gamble).  Institutional investors, those working with your pension funds, they don't care about stock splits.  1 share @ $500 is the same as 7 shares @ $71.  They are not fooled by such accounting gimmicks.  They know how to do math.

In short, Steve Jobs is gone and AAPL is in trouble despite what the main steam media is spewing.  Jobs was the driving force of AAPL. He had the vision and he knew what would sell and what would not.  King Steve knew how to motivate and he used both carrot and stick on his serfs.  Like it or not, he led his army to battle many times and usually outmaneuvered the enemy.  Now they have a visionless bureaucrat running the company and so AAPL is rotting on the tree.  Samsung is eating its lunch.  There is nothing special about an Ipad anymore nor an Iphone.  They should name their next product "Iclueless" or maybe "Igiveup".  Anyone can fudge earnings for a quarter or two.  They can even pull in revenue for a couple quarters. But AAPL needs real magic in order to drive future stock price gains, and Tim what's his name doesn't have it.  Not even close.  No vision.  Nada.

These comments might sound like loud talk on my part but the chart agrees with me.  Since the big 3rd wave peak I count a-b-c into wave 4 which ended at the 38.2 fib retracement and now 5 waves back up are nearly (but probably not completely) done.  I expect a peak somewhere in the blue box.  That would make wave 5 the same length as wave 1.  In other words, I model a failed 5th wave that will result in a declining double top and that is bad news for AAPL shares.  I don't think that the 5th wave can do much more than that because of the huge power of that 3rd wave.  In other words, there is only 1 extended wave per 5 wave motive sequence and that already happened during wave three.

Time will tell but the smart money knows what a sell off setup looks like and it looks like AAPL.   To be fair, Jobs also got the benefit of selling product into a rising credit environment.  Tim is faced with managing things in a declining credit market.  It makes things much harder when the middle class is now moving back in with parents or going on fraudulent disability in order to make up for declining employment opportunities and reduction in salaries while cost of living continues to climb for most people.  Maybe having the latest gadget isn't really as important as paying the rent.  And for those that continue to buy the gadgets, maybe overpaying for Ibrainwashed stuff is no longer all that important.