DJIA model update

The DJIA has been feeling pretty weak of late but a lot will be told by the next week of trading.  We could actually have seen the top of the bull run since 2009 already as I suggested could be the case in this post.  I model a large ending diagonal having played out during March with a 5th wave throwover into April.  the wave since broke down both upper and lower resistance, all in a 1st wave.  That is was a very powerful wave 1 down to have been able to do this IMO.  It usually takes a 3rd wave to do something like that.

Because of that strength I expect to only see a 38.2% fib retrace, not the normal 50% or even 61.8% retrace that has been more normal during this bull run. Interestingly, that would bring the chart up to kiss the lower support rail from below.  With such a powerful 1st (or it could be an A wave as well), down, I would expect that new resistance to hold.

If that 3rd wave puts in a big gap downwards, unless you are shorting the main stream stocks, be very afraid.  In that case, just short like crazy once the 38.2 holds and then set your stops just above that point and then go about your life checking back just once per day to see how its going.