Starting coverage on ORCL - strong sell

Forget the "fundamentals".  They can be manipulated.  The chart can be tricky to read as well but less and less so as it gets to the end of a run.  Still there are various ways to read the same chart.  But when the top two interpretations are both very bad, its best to walk away let the shares collapse and remove the huge bubble premium that is built into them thanks to Bernanke and the con men at the fed, and then pick through the pieces at the bottom.

So here is my bullish interpretation of the Oracle chart.  It basically says that 5 wave up have completed and that we are now in the 5th wave throwover of the (all too popular these days) ending diagonal.  ORCL just announced crappy earnings and so this happening in conjunction with the chart being an obvious ending diagonal makes me wonder why anyone would want to own the shares.

In this best case model, the shares are expected to pull back to about $14.

And now the bad news (as if the above were actually good news).  I don't think the above wave count is right.  I think the wave count seen below in the bearish model is correct.  Instead of having just completed 5 waves up, that is really an a-b-c sucker's bounce from the 2002 lows.  That means the shares will likely see a lower low than $6 before this crash is through. 

It's possible that the throw over can extend itself another 4-6 weeks but I would not count on that. I would head for the door on this one.  Forget the tiny few percent that might be possible (if any) on the upside and consider the damage that will be done on the down side.  This is mos def not going to end well.

Yeah, yeah, I know funny Captain make heap big joke, blah blah blah.  Heard it all before.  All my friends laughed at me when I told them with a straight face that AIG would go below $5 while it was still $40 something at the time.  They were stuck in the local reference, I had pulled myself out of it to look upon it as a bystander instead of as a participant.  It is a difficult posture to maintain as the mind constantly wants to get sucked back in by social forces.