Sell off begins tomorrow - 3/6/2014

I've looked at so many hyper extended Ponzi charts in the past week it's not funny.   Some are documented in these pages.  But one thing is clear.  Some kind of a peak - perhaps even THE peak is eminent.  The signs are there from the inverse ETFs as well.  FAZ morphed into the following bullish setup (inverse Owl).  Below is my current model for it.  The play is simple: I'm modeling this as a 5th wave.  That means it should not go any lower than black 5.  So buy the open (even though it is likely to be a pop for shorts and a drop for longs).  Then just set your stops to 5 cents below the 5th wave.  EW charts do not allow minor transgressions.  So if the chart goes below $20.03 then sell first and take a step back and ask questions later.  Don't think "oh, it's just a little bit".  Likewise, if it holds then the model predicts a rapid move up.  Don't sell easily; have conviction.

Check out the latest chart for GOOG.  This run is done.

Here is the longer term GOOG chart.  You can see the 5th wave breakout of that long standing upper trend line.  It signals euphoric sentiment and that always ends badly.  I stand behind my conviction from prior posts that this is a very high probability event.  I'm sticking with the highest breakdown probability that I have ever issued on this blog: 98%.  No debt Ponzi ever ran forever and it's not different this time.

I wonder what excuse they will have for selling.  Whatever it is, it has little to do with what comes out of their lying pie holes.  The chart is calling them liars in advance.

Despite all my confidence in this model, normal trigger points must all be respected.  The 2% gotcha can always happen.  If this was really a 5th of 5th of 5th then you should be able to set your stops for 1 penny above today's high.  In other words almost zero risk in shorting this pig.  This is a perfect setup for the asymmetric bet.   All up side with very, very little downside if you play it smart.