Calling a near term bottom on metals and miners

Ever since I warned that metals and miners might be headed for a big pull back I have been watching the waves form.  I now see that 3 waves down have likely completed from the Feb.   This is either 3 of 5 of an ongoing bear or the full 2009 bear could be over and this is just a deep a-b-c pullback.  In any case I bought into that little capitulation dip today and then I set my stops below it.

Below is the bigger picture and the two most likely scenarios to play out.  I honestly hope for the red scenario as it will be more deterministic that a bottom is in.  However the inclining double bottom scenario of the blue model would also be very bullish if it could then break up through the top green resistance line.  That would indeed be a major breakout.

For now I'm in just to see what kind of bounce it gets now that 3 waves down have transpired.  I would hope for at least 38.2 retracement of the past wave which would take USLV to about $51.  That's better than 10% and it should be worst case.  The 50% fib would be 52.65 and the 61.8 fib would be 54.59.  FWIW, the bounce into wave 2 exceeded the 61.8.  I really dodged a bullet on this one by keeping an eye on the shape of the waves.  It allowed me to suspect this outcome well in advance and not be fooled into riding down the slope of hope.