As Prechter said in Conquer The Crash, it's all one market.

Most people think that oil stocks will do well in a war.  That is conventional wisdom.  It has always been thus and so it will always be thus going forward.

So why does my model for Exxon Mobile (ticker: XOM) look like it has already started a new bear market?

Sure, it is still the early days of it and so it is hard to tell, but look at the chart!  I see an ending diagonal that has already throw over its 5th wave and then broken back into the channel.  That break down was wave 1 of the new bear market.  Wave 2 up will stop at the upper line which is now resistance.  It will then turn back down and break below that lower line as a 3rd wave plays out.  3rd waves are needed to break down significant support like this.

Prechter wrote that the coming collapse would make fools of those who were revered during the great credit infused run up.  Those people believe their own bull$hit about the value of shares when in fact shares only have a risk weighted value of their dividend.  In other words most stocks have no dividend and so they are inherently worthless.  Those that do pay dividends are subject to capital loss; while you get your 2-3%, the principal value of them can fall 10% or 80% for that matter.  And then they stop paying the dividend leaving you holding the empty Ponzi plate.  Today Warren Buffet is trying hard to make Prechter absolutely correct as he predicts that Berkshire Hathaway will be a mainstay of the economy for the next 100 years.  All I can say is that I have never seen a better contrarian indicator than this.  It sounds just like the Pompous Prognostications that were made going into the Peak Permanent Plateau of Ponzi Prosperity from the 1929 crash.


The chart of Berkshire Hathaway "A" shares is looking very toppy as well although there is not enough data to form a valid model.  I will say that this latest Ponzi Pump since 2009 looks like a clear 3 wave movement and that indicates some kind of triangle or ending diagonal is in play.  Since there are so many other ending diagonal happening right now I think it is safe to go with that.

Now, for the more conspiratorially bent, check out that straight horizontal line in the data going to zero.  I did not draw that!!   It is right out of the Ameritrade data feed.  Coincidence, or warning to the elite?  I already pointed out in a prior post that Ameritrade will not fix the software bug that makes it crash if you draw a line into 2017 and that after the mass confusion of 2017 in their time line comes 1883.  Again, coincidence?  Who knows.  But it is very strange that all of these anomalies are beginning to pile up right at this point.

After writing the above, I did find a chart with more data from Yahoo finance.  It is clearly an expanding triangle although I do not see the 5th rail being hit much less thrown over yet.  Given everything else I suspect that it will have a short stoked 5th.  But the chart does not indicate breakdown yet.

Right now, Buffet is considered an investing legend.  Before this is over, I bet that Prechter turns out to be the one who was right about all this.  Buffet is taking all the credit for the rise of BRK-A shares even though the driver of this success was not his brilliance but rather a massive debt Ponzi that enabled unbridled buying of risk assets.  When it collapses it is only fair to blame him because he did not see it for what it was.  Yes, it is considered crazy of me to write this, I know.  Ask me again in a year who was crazy and who was forward looking in this matter.

My target for BRK-A shares is 80k, best case.  It could be a lot, lot worse.  In anything happens to NYC, anything that destroys our stock market infrastructure, then we will see very quickly what these paper assets are really worth: ZERO.  I don't hope for it and I would never want it.  But the US has poked  a lot of people in the eyes just for fun over the past 30 years and so we are well hated globally.   Imagine the money that someone could make by shorting the USA in some other country or in Europe and then detonating a dirty bomb in NYC.  It's the stuff of fiction novels but it could account for that long line leading BRK-A shares down to zero.  If it happens (and I am NOT saying it will certainly happen - I don't know!) then one would have to ask, how did Ameritrade know about it in advance?