Amazon update

Here is my last post regarding AMZN.  It was not bullish to say the least.

Below is the original chart from that post.  As you can see, it was modeled to be a 5th wave throw over that would come back and test the new support line from above.  I show this first test as holding even though the new bear market for AMZN is already upon us.  The reason for this is that first waves generally do not have the power to break down such important and long term trend lines.  Thus it had to test it with wave 1 down, bounce into wave 2.
 

Below is the current chart showing the wave 2 bounce.  This wave 2 just hit the 61.8 fib retracement so I think it is very near a reversal and a move back down.  But this time, the move should be a good deal more powerful and show some signs of a panicked herd. 

This current predictive (as in not confirmed and still with a degree of risk which I gauge to be very low at this point) model shows 5 waves down ending at the lower support line at which time I will flip long and catch the dead cat bounce. It will be a large 2nd wave (or B wave) and so it should be pretty powerful.  But after that comes a big 3rd wave that will take out lower support.  By this time we should be feeling some real panic in the herd. 

If AMZN follows this model it will not do so in a vacuum. All stocks will be under selling pressure.  If this plays out, I don't see AMZN finding any support until about $170, best case.  In other words, I suspect it will collapse at least 50% from its bubbly peak before the selling is done.  And that is best case.