Sunday, February 2, 2014

What is the future of US interest rates?

No scam ever ran forever and that of driving interest rates lower in order to stop people from saving and instead getting them to spend (AKA "gamble", "invest in equities") has reached an end.  As you can see from below, the 1960s saw rising interest rates which indicated decreasing confidence in US debt as the world figured out that we were cheating on the gold standard.  In the early 1970s, the default on gold convertibility put the panic into high gear.  Paul Volcker then calmed the markets by driving the interest rates crazy high.  This meant that the US did not intend to abandon the dollar yet.  It meant that the con men running the show still thought there was still life in it.

As Asia became a productivity powerhouse, the world became calmed by the US leadership of it, especially the new found cooperation between the US and China.  Like it or not, the truth stands that the US made China what it is today just like it made Japan after WW2.  We brought technology and manufacturing discipline to these peoples so that they could be our economic slaves.  But a master with good prosperity lets crumbs fall off the table for the slaves and so it was actually good for both sides. 
 
Because of this, global calm ensued and interest rates came back down A-B-C.  This A-B-C was properly formed by an EW 5-3-5 pattern.  This is classic Elliott.  In addition, the rates actually went below where they started in the 50s and 60s.  This is classic Prechter mania retrace.


Interest rates have now concluded a full on mania retracement and there is no place left to go but up.  As this happens it will suck the life back out of the stock market. So how long until interest rates begin to really climb?  According to my model, not long.  If we zoom in on the 5th of C (left) we can see that 4 rail bumps of the ending diagonal have occurred.  If we zoom all the way into that 5th of 5 of C (right), we could really be forming the 5th of 5 of ending diagonal 5 of C.  In your mind, turn that right hand picture upside down and then mirror it horizontally.   Do you see The Owl?

Whether or not the absolute bottom for interest rates is in or not is not that important.  What is important is that we are likely very, very close to a significant uptick in interest rates.  In other words, the fed runs out of gas in some form or another for keeping low interest rates "indefinitely" like they promised.  My chart models are calling the Federal Reserve out.  They are saying "don't fight the fed" is nearly over.  They are saying "the Fed is nearly checkmated".


If these charts play out as expected, the stock markets will get punched in the gut.  They have been supported by the fed for a long time and without effective fed support, they will wither.  This jibes with another of my long standing economic prognostications which is that the markets do not have enough real value in them for boomers to collect on their expected retirements.  Everyone got herded into the markets via the 401k honey trap.  Now that they are "all in" and cannot just take their money out due to what amounts to capital controls which are built into the system (cannot take funds out without a penalty, cannot even elect to take the penalty unless changing jobs, etc.), those in the stock markets and other financial markets (including annuities, insurance policies, you name it) will get screwed.  Why?  Because all of these Ponzi Promises were made on the back of the assumption of ever expanding debt using "trees will grow to reach the sky" thinking.  But this cannot happen lest hyperinflation ruin the currency and if that happens the bankers will get completely blamed for everything and they will be literally hunted down and killed in the streets.  At least this is the lesson of history.

When this whole economic Ponzi collapses, please don't let the shock and awe of it confuse you.  There will be lots of finger pointing, lots of scapegoating, lots of indirection and other magick (sic).  But the real, underlying cause of all the coming carnage is one thing, and one thing only: a dishonest money supply consisting of fiat currency and fractional reserve lending.  The high priest of this scam is the US federal reserve.  Future talk about going to a "gold standard" in order to try to recover from the collapse is necessary but not sufficient for full, sustainable recovery.

We must also eliminate the complete scam which is known as fractional reserve lending.  It is by this scam that "special people" (not you or I) get access to massive amounts of leverage in order to buy assets at fire sale prices after the collapse.  That makes them masters of the universe and masters over the people during the subsequent recovery.  Gold is money and nothing else is.  Fractional reserve lending was, is, and always will be a massive scam which effectively is a naked short of human labor.  It is thus a theft of human labor and should be viewed as abhorrent by any thinking person who wants to work for what they get in a fair competition economic environment.

After the collapse, don't listen to the main stream media claim "nobody saw it coming".  Austrian school economists saw it coming and Elliott wave practitioners called the timing of it.

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