NASDAQ $COMPX update

Per my last update on the COMPX, I expected a move to about 4041 via an a-b-c retracement.  It got to 4044.  I wonder if this number means anything to any of my readers.  I will not say what it means to me unless someone guesses correctly in the comments.  Unfortunately, it is not a good thing.

IF this model plays out then I think that 5th wave will be 1 of 3.  In other words, black 1 took us to 4044 and then moved upwards into black 2.  I model the next move to be down 1-2-3-4-5.  Normally you would think that this means blue is is also black 3.  But 3rd waves are not going to be smaller than the 1st wave if this is really a new bear market like I think it is.  In fact, the 3rd wave in that case will most likely contain a monster gap down and we have not seen one. 

I think the market is setting us up for a 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd.

In other words, blue 5 could be 1 of 3.  Then up the red line until the prior 4th wave.  At that point, the chart would be well positioned for a monster downturn that could include a massive gap down in the 3rd wave of it.  I'm talking about 50-70 points lost at the open.  If that happens then it is another confirmation of the arrival of the new bear market. This is what I am currently modeling to occur.  But hey, what's in a model?