My current model of the $COMPX should be an interesting read for you.

For every situation it pays to make some kind of a model to serve as a yardstick of progress.  Without that, "gut feel", "seat of the pants", and "winging it" are the only strategies available.  OK, there is also hope but I think most people realize that hope is not a strategy.

So whether you agree with my model or not isn't as important as the fact that I have one and it contains trigger points.  If the triggers aren't hit, I was wrong, but at least I know I was wrong and that is useful in and of itself.  So be warned in advance, you probably won't like this model because it is not main stream media, tomorrow is a brighter day, happy happy joy joy.  It is just my wave count without emotions.  Please try to see it for that.  If it is wrong then I will adjust.  But if it's right, I will not be caught by surprise.

Good luck to us all when the $COMPX falls below the lower green rail.  It should be a dramatic collapse.  So dramatic, in fact, that I think some significant world event will have to have triggered it.

Time will indeed tell.