This is my first post on Priceline. In short, shareholders should probably run away screaming.

I have held off on posting anything about Priceline until now (years of waiting...) because the graph was just too strong looking.   But I now see 5 waves up ending in exponential panic buying with a 5th wave throw over of the the 1-3 line.  That is generally nosebleed territory for Ponzi Pumped shares like these.  Trust me when I tell you that a market cap of $60 billion for this POS is a dot bomb redux joke.  I have been watching it all the way up but too afraid of the exponential move to jump in.  I knew that the safer play, believe it or not, would be to wait for it to run out of gas and then ride it down.  Kudos to anyone who caught any part of the phenomenal move from $40 to $1200, but trees do not grow to the sky and so this one is about ready to fall over IMO.  This is currently viewed as ridiculous thinking by market participants.  Priceline is currently a Wall St darling.  Here is my model for the shares.

Of course, I could have written those generic words all the way up, and been wrong the whole time.  That is why I don't trade on gut feel only on the wave count. I don't always get it right but I always know as soon as I am wrong because the model tells me so.  And the model is telling me that PCLN just finished 5 of 5 and now all the risk is in holding the shares, not shorting them.  A break to a new high will negate the view and you can slip out the back for a small loss if that happens.  This might just happen if what is forming now is a 4th wave expanding triangle.  But if that is the case then it will see the 5th wave in a matter of a few weeks and then it will plummet.   These are so overbought that I think I will go for some puts.  In order to allow for one more final wave up, I would seek the safety of more time (or higher strike).  I'm going to review the options chain in detail tonight and purchase a nominal amount of puts before PCLN reports earnings.  If it disappoints then they will be good but if they report great earnings then the 5th wave will need to play out and I can purchase more puts at lower prices.

I don't think it has a month but let's say earnings are really trumped up one last time.  It could suck the life out of puts for another couple months.  But eventually even if bad news doesn't emerge (which I think is unlikely given market conditions), traders will have to sell their winners in order to cover their losers.  And when you have a 30x move up since 2006, there are a lot of winners in the shares.  Time will tell!!