Monday, January 13, 2014

JNK break down appears imminent.

I've been on JNK topping watch for a couple months now while it basically has moved sideways waiting for all the other crap stocks to align so that they can all go down together.  With this little "e" wave breakout I think we are looking at a tiny throw over that will very quickly.  It could start as soon as tomorrow, probably more like 2-3 days but likely no more than 2 weeks.  Then I expect it to turn back around and break back down.  Once that happens technical support will be broken and it will be heading into wave 3 down. 
 
This will not end well.  JNK won't be going down alone IMO.  I'm modeling a good deal of topping action across the board.  When the stocks get ready to plummet they will do it in near unison.   The herd is just waiting for the first sign of real danger and it will turn in unison and head south.  This collapse will likely be one for the record books because of the massively overbought nature of the markets. 

By overbought I mean the trilogy of boomer 401k bux, Bernanke bux and margin bux.  None of them are sustainable buying forces.  That leaves selling to be the only choice.

Besides, with everyone on the same bullish side of the ship in a way that has not been seen in nearly 3 decade, what could possibly go wrong?  I think the markets turn south in a major way as soon as this week but no later than early February.  Earnings reports are going to disappoint across the board IMO even if they are good.  Just like sometimes bad news will be ignored?  Good news will be ignored this time I think.  The herd is just ready for a southern vacation now.  As in the southern hemisphere.

Of course, all of these fundamentals mean nothing without the right chart setup and IMO it just happened again in JNK shares.

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