I hate to say it but either Friday OR Monday is likely going to be a market slaughter.

So many things are following my model that it's really overwhelming a bit.  I'm able to call the action almost day by day in many cases which means that a change in direction in the markets is afoot in my experience.  When the herd is complacent or nearing the end of a trend it often tends to meander toward the finish line like a herd grazing its way along.  But when the "time to move" signal is sent and received, the actions become almost military precision in nature of packing up the fort and getting ready to travel.

This rally was predictable and predicted.   Look at the nature of the chart.  5 waves down and then a-b-c back up.  This is classic EW 1-2.  Long time readers know what LIKELY (odds, not certainties!!) comes next: a big wave 3 down with gapping and crapping and everyone $hitting their pants as they realize that buy the dip has become a suckerz bet.  Once the markets show that stocks are dead money they will pile into metals IMO.  The money coming out of stock has to go somewhere.

The slaughter will begin Friday or Monday according to my model.  The COMPX is currently at the 38.2 fib and I suspect it has to achieve either the 50% fib or the 61.8%.  But no guarantees.  I would not hold this market long over night or over the weekend.  No way, no how.  The chart below is the NAS composite 10 minute.




I want to stress again how there is risk in trying to call the day by day.  These models represent my interpretation of the EW rules and thus are designed to skew the odds in the favor of the trader.  But odds are not certainties and models that are followed by reality for too long attract too many predators too quickly.  Thus, the herd changes and morphs.  If it was so easy then everyone would be a billionaire and we should all know that no new value is created in the stock market.  It is only transferred from losers to winners.  The whole thing should be done away with IMO for the good of the nation, but as Chuck Prince taught us, while the music is playing you have to dance.