Calling a major top on Macy's [M]

Macy's was at $5 back in late 2008 when the global economy was in a death spiral.  The fact that their stock took such a precipitous dive back then and then recovered so dramatically is clear evidence that Macy's is a leveraged pig that cannot stand on its own without massive credit being injected into the economy.  You really need look no further than the graph in order to understand this.

But sooner or later the benefit of increasing credit had to peak (and the credit itself had to peak).  Fast forward to today.  The EW model for M shows that the shares are either at or very, very near a major top.  The wave pattern is so clear it's not even funny.  While I cannot be sure that red 5 is fully played out, I think the odds are quite high.  At best it might gain 5-7% more but that's about it.  And even that is at the low end of the probability scale, perhaps 30% chance according to my model.

Below is the 15 minute graph of just red 5 shown above.  It models very well as 5 waves up where the 5th wave was a failed 5th.  While there is a chance that red 5 might just be wave 1 of 5 of the final rail touch (leading to a 5th wave throw over), the personality of this graph does not lend high odds to that outcome.  There are 2 reasons for this view:

1. In the graph above, the 5th wave happened to be the extended wave. Once a major wave is extended like this, it does not normally keep extending and extending.  If that whole section between black 4 and red 1 above did not exist then I would not be so sure, but it does exist and so the odds of additional 5th wave extension are very low, 10% IMO.
2. The whole 5th wave above is well formed with a line perfectly connecting 1,3 and 5 that is parallel to the 2-4 line.  While throw overs have been common of late, they are not really that common during normal times.  It would not surprise me to see no throw over for a retailer (whereas a high tech would be more likely to see it).

The other likely outcome is that this bounces up and down 5 times to form a 5th wave ending diagonal instead of the failed 5th scenario noted below.  We should have good evidence of how this is going to turn out pretty soon.  If the wave only bounces to the 38.2 or the 50% fib then it is likely that the 5th of 5th of 5th is complete.  Having said that, ending diagonals have been popular lately so I can see holding off on betting against this stock until the completion of the 5th is confirmed.