Tuesday, December 3, 2013

VXX getting ready to skyrocket (90+% chance)

I've been on VXX bottoming watch for a couple weeks now and it has crept lower and lower as the S+P 500 has extended and extended its 5th wave.  During that time I have not seen a better bottoming setup than is presented by today's chart.  As I showed in a prior post, the VXX chart broke below support in what looks like a good bit of capitulation and has now reversed itself and broken back up above the resistance line in fairly dramatic fashion.






What that left us on the 15 minute chart was a nearly textbook cup with handle formation:
  • The bowl is nice and round
  • High volume on the falling side of the bowl fell away on the rising side of it.
  • If this pattern is confirmed (and I think we are 90-95% chance that it will based on the S+P just finishing the 5th of C) then the chart should a-b-c back down (that might already be complete or nearly so) and then take off for at least 4-5 points as shown in blue.  In other words, $48 was wave 1 of the new bull run, a-b-c is a vee type wave 2 that will take it back to something north of $46, and then it will reverse up dramatically into wave 3 up probably hitting $50 or more in a very short time.
This will only be confirmed if the chart can follow the blue line and break out above $48.  Once that happens, expect the trading computers to notice and to pile on to the low risk herd move.


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