Telsa shares following model prediction quite closely; B wave nearly complete.

As luck would have it, my EW model called a top on Tesla shares back in October.  As the shares broke down I surmised in this post that the draw down was likely just the A wave and that we should expect a big B wave before the real damage got done in the C wave.  Today I want to compare my model with what actually happened.  That comparison is shown in the stacked charts below.

While my A bottoming is stretched out a bit further than reality, my model got the level within $1.  I modeled the bottom of A to be at $115 and it actually went down to $116 and change before turning up into B.  Not bad at all for a model created so far in advance.

But now the question is where will B end before C happens.  The current chart is very near the time point where my model expects a reversal back down.  In fact the shares also at the same price level today as my model suspected would be the turning point back down (based on kissing the 23.8 fib from below).  Looking at the shape of the wave however leads me to suspect an ending diagonal is forming in the B wave that could take it to the top of the channel on a throw over.

It's not often that a model plays out this closely without any adjustments along the way so I will be watching TSLA shares carefully over the next few weeks.  But with toppiness in so many other stocks right now I can see how TSLA shares would run with the herd back south if the major indices break down.

While the B wave topping seems like a high probability call, this ending diagonal business is still VERY speculative.  I don't know how B will end yet.  It the shares continue to play out the ending diagonal with 5 rail bumps, perhaps a throw over before a breakdown below the lower support then I think we will have a clear exit signal.

By the way, I didn't want to burn a whole post on it but I think the score is Commander Phil Duck won, A&E zero.  This is a strong signal that the liberals have run out of gas and that a major mood change is in store for the US.  Conservatives do not like to see wildly gyrating economic indicators.  They like steady market gains, not wildly fed pumped valuations that we see today.  Unfortunately for many, the only way to make this right is to crash the major indices and send PEs spiraling downward. 

This will happen not because anyone wants it to but because the credit will be rescinded and much of the market valuation is margin debt (fake, debt pumped Ponzi Prosperity).  It's a scam and conservatives don't like scams.  Liberals are far more likely to buy into them since it sounds like something for nothing.  We conservatives don't mind working hard for what we get.  Again, liberals have a slant toward consumption, conservatives have a slant toward production with lots of grey in between.  The liberals have had it too easy for too long and things are really messed up in the liberal, socialism direction right now.  Expect the pendulum to swing back the other way and even to the point of getting messed up badly in a conservative direction before this credit collapse is done playing out.