BBRY shares becoming a very good bet

Everyone is calling for BBRY to BK, moaning about the recent 40% layoff and recent $1bn loss.  It is not good news by any stretch.  But I don't get how everyone can overlook the fact that it still has $2.3 billion with a B cash in the bank and zero (0) debt.  Losing 40% of the employees will allow it to save a bundle on salaries.  While it will certainly impact growth to lose this kind of headcount, it should also quell fears that the company management is not willing to take the hard steps needed to survive.

Blackberry, formally Research In Motion (ticker RIMM) is currently selling at blood in the street prices.  Look at the Prechteresque P/S and P/B, both well below 1:






There are companies out there which have never turned a profit and which have loads of debt and little cash who have bigger market caps than BBRY.  Maybe BBRY will finally sell out and go private leaving new shareholders in at these prices with only a 30 or 40% gain.  But to me it looks like management there is digging in its heels for a fight and you can bet they've been given some nice stock options at these levels.  This is a company that could come raging back.  Maybe they will come up with an NSA-beating security strategy and thus become mandatory at large corporations. 

Still, there is a lot of conjecture in all of that so let's have a look at the chart.   The chart says "start a buying program right now".  Maybe not "all in at once", but certainly worth getting a toe wet.  Why?  Because that big triangle to the left is most likely the 4th wave.  Once that had 5 rail bumps (which ended at $16), I see the 1st wave down to $13.50, then an a-b-c to $15 for wave 2.  Then, as expected a HUGE big smackdown of a 3rd wave, cliff diving and all.  That's a very good sign that the count is correct.  Following that, a 4th wave back up (vee style to complement wave 2 which was zig zag - AKA alternation), and now either done with the 5th wave down or very close to being done with it.  Note that in the 5th wave, 1-3 are parallel to 2-4 and 2 was a vee correction while 4 was a sideways correction.  That big gap in the 5th wave had to be 3 of 5.

So I'm not sure that this thing has bottomed but I strongly suspect that it will bottom in very short time.  When it does the shorts, who have piled so mercilessly into this, are going to get shaken and then stirred.  I expect very rapid gains for new shareholders at these prices as a massive short squeeze takes hold of these shares.  I say again, the company just laid off 40% of the workforce and it has $2.3 billion in the bank.  Those shorts who were hoping to ride this to BK and avoid paying taxed are smoking that funny Colorado tobacco.

The chart is now testing the support turned resistance line from below.  If that breaks out then it could start a northward stampede.  Remember the solar plays?  Remember how ridiculously oversold they got before they finally bottomed and then rocketed up?  You are looking at yet another potential opportunity for that kind of short covering with BBRY shares.  Keep an eye on that breakout level, the momentum players will dive in if the technicals start going their way.