American Express looks very toppy.

I just read a post on some stock chat board where the poster said "AXP is going to skyrocket".  Of course, that made me go take a look at the chart, something I have not done in years.  What I found suggested to me that the stock was a lot closer to a monster peak (SELL) than a buying opportunity.

Here is the chart.  It could very well be playing out the final stage of the 5th wave of a massive expanding triangle that is now well into the throwover stage.  I only count 3 of 5 of C right now so I'm not convinced it will immediately turn around and break back down through.  Perhaps there will one more small wave up to finish it off.  But it could also be forming a C wave ending diagonal that would indeed collapse soon.  Either way, I would be positioning for the door on AXP using trailing stops of no more than 5%.  Perhaps even as tight as 3%.  These shares are going nearly vertical.  Anyone who was going to buy is already in a panic buying situation.

A couple things to note about AXP.  It's wild gyrations suggest massive underlying instability (leverage of some sort even if you don't know what it is) in its business model.  Look how low it went in 2008 and then when Bernanke re-enabled market leverage with all of his QE look how it is up 8-9X since then.  When the party punch bowl is taken away next time, I expect that AXP will BK.  Yes, that's right.  Nobody is saying it right now.  Nobody will believe it can possibly happen.  But nobody believed me when I told them well in advance that AIG was going to BK either.

Wait until the panic starts.  AXP is going to fold like a Broadyway turkey.  But instead of breaking a leg in the fall I predict that it will break its back.  AXP and other credit organizations are the engines of the debt Ponzi and when the Ponzi collapses as all Ponzis eventually must, AXP is done for.  Again, this is currently viewed as an impossible outcome by everyone.  Look at the chart.  That is patsy optimism at its finest.

By the way, the modeled decline would run the shares right into the StrategyDesk disaster zone.  Coincidence?  Maybe.  But don't say "nobody" ever saw this coming.  I see it.  I'm saying it.  Time will tell.