S+P 500 still in final topping stages: what I'm watching for.

It's no secret that I think the S+P 500 is in the final topping stages of the run up which started in early 2009 when the federal reserve started what is now publicly admitted to by at least one member of the federal reserve to have been a back door bankrolling of the Wall Street money elite.  Up until now, only "conspiracy theorists" (i.e. hyper-informed visionary whistle blowers) have been saying what Andrew Huszar has now publicly apologized for, and in the Wall Street Journal no less.  Rarely are such admissions so clearly spoken to so wide an audience.

This is not going to go unnoticed by the herd.  Smart people are running, not walking, to call their brokers to demand that they sell assets and get out of the system.  Why?  Because once everyone becomes aware of this news, the federal reserve is going to have to stop the bail out.  Public anger will demand no less and make no mistake, the public is very, very angry.  But most people are timid and do not stand by their convictions.  As Burke wrote, all that is necessary for evil to succeed is that good men do nothing.  Most people will not stand up against the system until they see a critical mass of thought leaders already standing.  Until that point, the masses of the herd actually shout the informed whistle blowers down, call them names, ridicule and berate them.  This activity is actually what leads the herd to such a violent turn around once they realize they were wrong and the whistle blowers were right.  The herd moves rapidly to save face and to try to right this wrong. 

I think admissions like that of Huszar's are the basis of that critical mass.  I think the failure of Obamacare the program (which is far more than Obamacare the website) is showing people just how scam ridden the government is.  Anything written by the main stream political class actually has an opposite meaning.  Affordable Care Act = Completely unaffordable act that has nothing to do with health care.  Department of Homeland Security = Department of fascist, jackbooted, spying, lying, cheating cowards who are more likely to cause a false flag terrorism event than to prevent any real terrorism.  You name it, the list goes on and on. It is a form of brain washing and social engineering that must give the elite hours of belly laughs as the sheeple lap it up.  But all good things come to an end and it's not different this time.  The con is near collapse and with it will go the stock market and the bond market too.

So here (below) is my current model for the topping.  Yes, it has extended itself in every way allowed by the rules of EW but there is a limit to the extension and as things progress it becomes increasingly less risky to bet against the system.  Don't think for a minute that many in Wall Street aren't planning their profit strategy for the collapse phase. 

I think that if the current lower support line holds then one of the 3 paths shown will likely play out.  I suspect it will be the blue path (lowest of the 3 parallel lines) because that will lead to a declining double top (which I have dubbed "owl ears").  That has been a popular topping formation for this cycle so I'm betting on it here as well.  we will know a lot more in the next couple days.

If I'm right, the first confirmation will be a break down through the lower parallel line (the green 2-4 line).  The next test/confirmation will be around the location encompassed by the blue oblong.  If that fails (breaks down) then the real fear starts when and if the chart breaks down the lower channel of the expanding triangle somewhere within the orange circle.  The worm will likely have completely confirmed its turn if support at the red oblong does not hold.   VXX will skyrocket from its current price of $47.61.  This is for gamblers and traders only, not generally recommended.  But I have some and I have some USLV as well (currently at $54.22).  The USLV has a $52 stop loss on it but I'm just going to let the VXX ride come what may.