Is Pan American Silver nearing a bottom?

Anyone who thinks metals are dead over the long term is not thinking straight.  Even if the entire global monetary system were stable (which it clearly is not), nothing goes straight up or straight down and gold and silver are always going to be valued by the economy even if they are not publicly re-monetized.  Gold has not been official money for many decades yet no money savvy person will look at  gold coin and say it has no value (quite the contrary).  Silver was completely removed from our money supply decades ago as well.

Silver is an interesting case because it serves as both a commodity as well as a money metal.  Silver is in fact a technology metal.  It's commercial use was undisputed prior to digital photography.  That was a first wave for silver utility to society.  We are currently near the end of a massive 2nd wave not in terms of price but in terms of utility.  With all of silver's incredible properties on so many broad fronts, it is sure to have a 3rd wave up in terms of commodity use: anti microbial, super efficient windings for electric motors, battery components, etc.  Silver is definitely the prince of commodity metals.

In the world of metals, the physical metal itself has enduring, long term value.  It is long term savings.   If you want a bit of speculation in this area (AKA "investing" and "gambling"), the miners are where all the leverage and rapid price moves come from.  Check out the chart of Pan American Silver (PAAS).  With 5 downward waves all but in the bag this one will not stay down forever:

Note:

• $421mn cash, $84mn debt 
• P/B =0.64 (very cheap)
• P/S=1.8
• Current dividend is 4.8%.  Try getting that at a bank.

I'm not calling a bottom on PAAS yet but I am keeping an eye on it because I think it is close.  When metals rebound (as they certainly will at some point) this thing is going to return impressive percentage gains, especially if it can bottom before it goes below the last dip of about $8.90 so that it forms an inclining double bottom.  You can see what damage the declining double top did.  The inclining double bottom should result in even better moves to the upside (should it pan out) given that it has a broader time base associated with it than the peaks of the double top did.

Keep in mind the way percentages work: those who bought the peak @~$40 are down ~75%.  Those who buy this at $8-$10 and ride it back up to just $20 are good for 100%.  And if it goes up to $20, it will go past $40 IMO.  Buy low, sell high.