Gold has to tip its hand right now.

The gold chart is now poised to either explode upward into a 3rd of a 3rd wave or to fall back and make all near term gold traders rethink their positions.  The chart below with EW numbers modeled in tells the story.

So far, I interpret the chart such that the odds favor the scenario modeled below.   Th ere were 5 waves up to red 1.  Then there was a very clear a-b-c retracement back down to red 2.  Then there was a run up to resistance which I think is likely the 1st wave of a new 3rd wave upward movement.  And finally we have seen a retracement wave that could be 2 of 3.  IFF this is the case, the chart will have to reverse wildly upward very soon because it should be forming a 3rd of a 3rd wave.  This is the EW phase that has the power to cut through long standing resistance like a hot knife through butter.

This chart model is not confirmed yet and in fact, I give it less than my normal high level of confidence: only 70% chance.  This is because the wave falling down off of "1 of 3?" does not look like a typical a-b-c retracement.  In fact, it looks like 5 waves down.  If that is the case than it might just be A of 2 of 3. In that case, a bounce at this point would not be to 3 of 3 but rather to B of 2 of 3.  Then we would see another downward stroke.  This is in fact why I drew the red oblong of reversal so wide.  I think it is possible that the chart could try to fill the gap that occurred from red 2 to the peak marked "1 of 3?".  In other words a possible C of 2 pullback to $124.  If this happens and support holds there then the 3rd wave will be primed and ready to go.  But if the chart falls below $122, it will trigger a complete rethink under the rules of the Elliott wave principle. 

Time will tell.

For the record, anyone trying to trade these small moves is a fool.  Just dollar cost average into gold instead of throwing your hard earned retirement money into the 401k honey trap and sleep well at night knowing that no amount of government corruption and theft can ever steal your retirement leaving you penniless and in the street.  This is certainly going to happen to millions when the Great Reset arrives.