DRYS: hyper critical technical juncture.

In the last post I made on DRYS I modeled that the downward wave in progress at the time was over, suspecting that it was the completion of Wave 2.  Check out the chart in that link: My EW model  called the reversal with excellent accuracy.  Now I'm trying to determine if we are really building wave 3 up OR if the nice percentage rally we just saw here was really only the B of 2.  If that is the case, this will turn downward in the next day or two very hard.  The reason for this is that in that case it will be forming 3 of C.  Maybe it will be 3 of 1 of C.  Maybe it will extend and become 3 of 3 of C.  Either way, it would involve gaps down that the prudent trader would rather avoid.

There is also the chance that it will go up into a real C wave from here.  Initial confirmation of this will be a breakout above the recent high marked "b? in the model below.  The chart could go either way at this point depending on how a butterfly flaps its wings in Japan.  But since I think the VIX is ready to turn around and start showing some fear, I will go 70:30 against this being the 3rd wave up.  In other word, I think the next move should be downward to somewhere around the lower red 2?

Time will tell.