MSFT at critical technical point, potential 3rd wave down on deck.

After a monster gap down into a wave 1, Microsoft shares have had a 38.2% retracement after what could be viewed as an A-B-C movement into a wave 2.  There is no certainty that the shares will stop here but the odds are on the side of a downward move at either the 38.2, the 50 or the 61.8% retracement and they are at 38.2 right now.  So this is an important time to be cautious about owning MFST shares IMO.  I think there is a 60% chance that the 38.2 fib holds but if not then likely a 80% chance that the 61.8 fib holds.  After that, my model of this MSFT chart expects serious cliff diving as shown below as it enters a massive 3rd wave down.  Time will tell.