GLD at important technical juncture.

I've been posting a lot about silver of late but I think gold and silver will move with close correlation so today's post is about the interesting technical point that the GLD ETF finds itself at.  While GLD continues to diverge from GOLD (i.e. the real spot price of the metal on the metals exchange) as well as physical gold (i.e. bullion coins and bars in your hands), it is still the easiest chart to come by for me so I use GLD as a proxy for the metal.

To keep it short, my recent Elliott wave charts for silver indicated that we would have the rally that is now occurring in both gold and silver but that my current model for silver indicates one more wave down will occur.  Of course that model could be wrong but assuming it is correct for now, gold will likely have one more small wave down as well.

In the chart at left, gold is seen to bounce at the 38.2 fib twice before breaking down below that support level with pretty good gusto.  It then went down to touch the bottom of what I think is the channel and has been doing a vee recovery ever since.


What is interesting about the chart right now at this very moment are in fact two things:

1. Whereas the 38.2 fib was support before that broke down, it is now resistance.  In other words, the chart broke down below support and is now re-testing it from below.  If the chart cannot break out here but is instead rejected back downward, it will be the famous "goodbye kiss". In that case, near term caution is warranted.  As you can see, the long term trend line is within a few hundred bucks.  Note:
• While not shown in the chart, the bounce that recently occurred was right at the 50% fib.
• It will be VERY bullish for the price of GLD if the current retracement cannot make it back down to long term support.  It means that the sellers could not revert it to the mean.  This is the stuff of very bullish inclining double bottoms... 
2. A break above the 38.2 fib would also be a break outside of the green down sloping channel.  That would be unusual in terms of bear market continuation and trading computers would pick up on it.  This occurence would likely send a buy signal to market based trade bots all over the world.  Note:
• There is broad speculation (with some interesting evidence to back it) that central banks are trying to manipulate the price of gold down.  Many dismiss it as "conspiracy theories" but of course conspiracies are the norm for mankind throughout history.  For example India, whose government I believe is now a puppet of the US, is pulling out all the stops to dissuade its people from buying physical metal.  They put import tariffs on it and created all manner of paper gold "products" in order to attract buying away from the physical metal.  None of these distractions seem to be working.  So if the metal breaks out then I think it will attract massive buying. 
• If manipulators are indeed at work here, they better pull out even more stops to halt gold at its current level and send it back down for another month or two.  Failure to do so will likely result in massive gold buying and a loss of confidence in the con men to keep their fiat currency sham going.  But even if they can manage to push it down one last time, I think that will represent the 5th of C which will still form a very bullish inclining double bottom that will push it up into a massive new 3rd wave that takes the metal well over $2000 ozt.

In short, I see golden fireworks happening before the end of the year.  We might have to endure one more smash down, perhaps even to the 61.8% fib before it is over, but the buyers will come and turn it around this year IMO.  Forget the day to day gyrations.  Take advantage of the gold pullback to fatten up your retirement savings.  Don't be like the Detroit public employees who now have to go begging for their pensions in bankruptcy court.  Be your own central banker and your own retirement account manager.  Allowing anyone else to do this for you will end badly for they are con men running a massive con game called the Global Debt Ponzi.