Thursday, August 13, 2015
[JNUG] update
Backlink. Despite the current model calling for lower prices, I am also looking for the potential that the bottom could already be in. In this case, we could see JNUG fill the gap at the 50 fib in an a-b-c move as shown below. Look for the tell tale a-b-c wave count to guide you in this.
Hello Captain,
ReplyDeleteSorry to bother you with such a simple question, how to tell the difference between a C and a possible 3rd down, I always have a hard time telling what is an abc or 123, a quick reminder would be greatly appreciated.
many thx.
L.
I wish it were a simple answer. The most correct and terse answer is "years of experience" which is really to say "the chart has the "right look" (as opposed to right count...). Charts have a character as well as a count. You have to become a chart whisperer if you want to improve odds significantly which is why, even though many know the EW rules, not many are any good at it so they give up and say it's all a load of crap. There are some guidelines that you can read if you just google your exact question but I have found that they don't work very well. This is why you find conservative EWers often say "1orA, 2orb, 3orC". If we knew for 100% certain then we would not hedge like this.
ReplyDeleteKeep in mind that since this is all odds based there is no certain answer. Odds are just that, odds. Not certainties. The truth is that the herd can change its mind within limits in real time just as a car can change its direction within limits in real time. The key to winning is to use stops in case you are wrong. Period. Thus you win when you are right but don't lose much when the herd moved against your model as is its prerogative.
HTH
-Cap'n